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It is true that people with a work disability are not
randomly sampled. The CPS in general, however, is based on a large sample
size that is statistically stratified (over 50,000 households and 100,000
people). The overall sample size is large enough that data from the
subpopulation is reliable. If this were a problem, we would expect to see
greater variability in employment rates from year to year. The stability of
these rates over time lends credence to the value of the work disability
sample.
The criticism contradicts the frequent use that many
vocational and economic experts make of the CPS data. The sampling and
weighting procedures in the CPS are based primarily on geographic area,
household type, unemployment ratios, age, gender, race, and Hispanic
origin. Education is not a part of this procedure. Despite this, many
forensic experts value the CPS data and use average earnings and employment
by education level in order to estimate lifetime earning capacity. Based on
the Skoog and Toppino
(2002) criticism, however, this is wrong. This criticism, then, appears to
be carrying the sampling need to extremes with the sole purpose of
denigrating the CPS disability data.
Skoog and Toppino (2002) state that disability surveys
are only useful if they are extremely specific in their sampling methods.
They note:
For their Tables to have any validity, their statistics
must be based on sensible (read statistically consistent at a
minimum, if not statistically unbiased or efficient) structural
parameter estimates. They must answer the question if one has this
education, sex, age, and impairment/condition, what is the conditional
probability such a person will be employed? (Emphasis in original; p.
85)
This is an impossible solution to the issue. First,
the sample size would have to be enormous in order to accommodate this
desire – probably a sample size much larger than even the 5% sample of the
Decennial Census! Even if this could be accomplished to any degree, it
would be impossible to anticipate every combination of age, gender,
education level, and impairment that might arise in a forensic setting. |