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Possibility of Future Disability

Challenge Issues Challenge Cases


Actual Earnings Use
Average Statistics
Basic Analysis Methodology
Broad Support
Census Bureau Caveat
Chronic Disability
Corcione Article
CPS Data Validity
CPS Definition of Work Disability
CPS Self-reported Disability
CPS Use by Other Researchers
Daubert/Kumho Standards - WLE
Employment, Earnings, & Disability
Expert Qualifications
First Work Disability Question
Hale Article
Hamel Letter
Heterogeneity
Medical Impairment Ratings
Multi-year Data Averaging
Offset Use
Possibility of Future Disability
Residual Capacity
Sample Selection Bias
Skoog & Toppino Article
Temporary Disability
VALE Software
Veteran's Disability

 

Usual Opposition Position
Some feel that nondisabled worklife expectancy statistics are invalid because they do not account for the possibility of further disability in the future.
 
VEI Position
Some note the fact that the worklife expectancy statistics do not consider the possibility of future disability.  Though this is true, it misses a crucial point that needs to be considered.  Gibson (1998) noted:

A disabled person faces a risk of further disabling injuries at least as high as a nondisabled person’s risk of an initial injury.  Use of The WLE Tables is primarily intended for forensic settings where the change in a person’s worklife from nondisabled to disabled is the primary concern.  Study of the nondisabled worklife alone (in cases of partial disability) has little value without a corresponding disabled worklife.   

The fact is, there is no reliable source for computing probabilities of future disability.  One could potentially be derived for the nondisabled population, but such statistics are beyond modern science for the population with disabilities.  To factor it on one side of the equation and not the other would be inequitable.

Finally, Culver v. Slater Boat Company (722 F.2d 114, 5th Circuit, 1983) notes that there are some possibilities we simply do not factor in our computations of lost earnings:

Arriving at a reasonable estimate of anyone’s financial future involves estimates of a whole spectrum of factors.  We commonly exclude many relevant factors from consideration on the basis that they are so speculative that they cannot accurately be determined.  For example, we consider only work-life expectancy and do not take into account the possibility that a worker will change to work that is more pleasurable but pays less.  When considering the loss suffered as a result of the death of a wage-earner, we do not consider the likelihood that a widowed spouse may remarry.  Nor do we take into account the stability of an already accomplished remarriage, or the age, appearance or personality of the surviving spouse. 

Analyses of lost earnings factor in the probability of the plaintiff’s death at each future age.  However, death is certain.  Divorce or (further) disability is not. 
 
Related Challenges
Celarek v. Rutland Farina v. Hershey Mesman v. Crane
 
Related Articles
Corcione (1995)  Gamboa & Holland (2005) Gibson (1998)
Gluck (1996)    

Last modified: Thursday January 26, 2006 04:12 PM


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